A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
